Source :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India
As Indians all know a little bit or a lot about India, and even my foreign friends have some idea about the economy of India; India and China being the so called countries of future. Who will do better is something which really intrigues me ... mainly because a) I am an Indian ... b) it's a pure test of chaos, emotions, entrepreneurial spirit, bad politics (India) v/s planning, rationality, authoritative government and single-mindedness (China)
I want to root for India because I am an India, but living here I am reminded of the problems we face everyday. Even though my hometown Delhi has improved a lot over the past decade and I have literally seen it blossom, a visit to any small town or even my recent move to Hyderabad shows a starkly different image of India to me.
Our rate of population growth, might end up being the biggest challenge we will have to overcome before we overcoming the economies outside India. Anyhow, here are some of the interesting facts I learnt from WIKI:
1. The economy of India is the twelfth largest economy by nominal value ... Wow!!! even Italy & Spain have bigger economies than us =P ... That is what Renaissance did for Europe & the western world!!
2. But when you adjust the economies for purchasing power parity (PPP)... India is the fourth largest economy in the world.. WOO!! .. Only countries ahead of us are US, Japan & China.... Hmm.. all of a sudden US & Japan sound a lot more exciting to me than Europe... but Europe is Europe =)
3. We are all aware that post the LPG (Liberalization, Privatization, Globalization) moves of the early 1990s India experienced rapid growth in the economy and has now become a country with huge Natural & Human Resources, and most importantly a huge knowledge base ... This is one of my key reasons to believe that India will do good in the long run, but then Chinese are inventing stuff, while we are still at the application side. =(
4. India's expected GDP growth rate of 6.5 % slides it's ranking from 2nd a few years ago to 13th .. surprising a lot of African countries and countries in and around the middle east are doing quite well.. Hmm.. I guess the real estate crisis was only in Dubai
5. Something which really broke my heart was that our nominal per capita income of $1032 places us at a Rank of 139 and a PPP adjusted figure of $ 2932 doesn't alleviate us above the Rank of 128 ... we still in fact are a poor nation ... BUT hey!!.. we are still better than PAKISTAN!!.. and by a whole of $16... woo ho.. I don't get it... on one hand we are competing with the Giants of the world like US, China, Europe and on the other hand we are suffering in poverty.. The only sense it makes to me is that the size of Indian Economy only helps the people at the top, who get better negotiating power, it only helps the Ambanis, the Laloos, the Chautalas and the Murthys, the Tatas amass huge fortune and keep building on them ... irrespective of the way they earnt it.. the Gini coefficient of India is 32.5 (conservative) and increasing =( ... compare this with Sweden or all of Europe.. and you will get what I am talking about.. US is even worse than us ... Now I understand why I like Europe =)
6. 80% of our population lives at less than $2 per day!!... one-third of our kids below 3 are underweight (NIPUN saale khana band kar!!!) .... and a third of our men and women suffer from chronic energy deficiency ... This figures just make me sad... somehow the India I live in and the real India have huge gaps..
Historically studying our Economy is divided into three broad eras
1. Pre-colonial
2. Colonial and
3. Post Independence
Pre-colonial India was a well planned village economy (99.3% of Indians used to live in villages in 1872) running in the self-sustained format from the Indus Valley Era. Largely barter was the format of trade even though coins were issues by many kings... We never trust our politicians ;) ... The Hindu caste system was a form of division of labor on genetic lines... and.. my favorite =)
IN 1600, in Akbar's Mughal Empire, the total Revenue was 17.5 Mn pounds while that of Great Britain in 1800 was 16 Mn Pounds ... It took Britain more than 200 years to come close to Akbar's glory day... No wonder India is the country with modern day wonders like The Taj Mahal
By the time, the British arrived in India, we were still an agrarian economy using primitive technologies.... Nothing gives competitive advantage like Innovation !!...
After the decline of the Mughal Empire, the Maratha empire grew and took over a major chunk of India, but after their decline, smaller states were left, which were later easily defeated by the Britishers!
Under the Britishers, the taxation environment was revamped and led to mass impoverishment & destitution of many farmer .... I wonder why the Indian Politicians don't ask for a quota from the firangs in Oxford now... after all the poverty of our country is a gift by them to a great extent!
The economic policies of the Raj effectively bankrupted the Indian handicraft scene.. there you go another quota-able caste =) .. Oxford will need to start a new course.. B.A (Indian Handicrafts)
India became a major market for British & European goods, because of the gap due to Industrial Revolution... which India was deprived of for almost 250 yrs... according to an analysis by Angus Maddison .. India's share of world income fell from 22.6% in 1700 comparable to Europe's 23.3% to a meagre 3.8% in 1952 ... to almost 2.01% now (my calculation).... This literally makes me want to cry... I mean.... WTF!!! ... we are approximately 23.3% of the world's population now.. and Imagine an India with a GDP of over 14 trillions USD ... DAMN!!
Anyhow, no point crying over spilled milk, we gotta make the best of what we have now!
The good things about the Raj was... they created a single currency, established standardized weights and measures and capital markets. Railways, telegraph, civil service aimed to be free from political interference, a common law and the adversarial legal system are also remnants of the Raj.
However the fact is, The Raj coincided with the time when the world was developing through the Industrial revolution, moving forward at a thrifty pace and India was being sucked off leaving it one of the poorest countries in the World!!!.. agriculture system unable to feed the growing population, one of world's lowest life expectancies, and low rates of literacy.
From all of that!!.. we have still become a respectable force in the world market!!... we are agriculturally self sufficient, our life expectancy will soon be at par with the developed economies of the world! and even though literacy is still an issue, we have now become a powerful knowledge economy with a bigger number of people with IQs above 120 than there are people in US.
Post Indepence, Indian politicians being heavily influenced by Fabian Socialism of Britain & being wary of the capitalist (which many read as imperialist then) style, made India a heavily protected economy. This according to many did India more damage than good, yes!! we had the green revolution but besides that, Indian economy was still limping while the world was hopping away.. S.Korea which had compared income levels in the 1950 to India.. has more than 8 times the income levels of India by 1995
India's planning of the economy was to a great extent influenced by the soviet system, but unlike the soviet central command system, India's was more based on direct and indirect intervention.
India's govt concentrated on capital & technology intensive industries while simultaneously subsidizing cottage industries. This was criticized by Milton Friedman as it would waste capital & labor and stunt the growth of small industries.
The sad growth rate of India from 1947-80 was derisively called the "Hindu Growth Rate" while the "East Asian Tigers" were roaring ahead.
The Rockfeller Foundations reasearch into High Yielding Varieties of seed, their introduction in 1965 coupled with increased use of Fertilizers & Irrigation brought about the Green Revolution.. again... India never really developed the Innovation muscle.. always a follower.. We seriously need to work on it, if we wish to move forward!!
In the 80s, under the leadership of Rajiv Gandhi, price controls were removed, corporate taxes reduced, and restrictions on capacity expansion were eased for incumbents, although these spiked a higher growth rate, they also raised the fiscal deficit and worsened the current account. India still has one of the highest fiscal deficit in the world hovering at above 10% and the world keeps talking about Greece!!
Post the collapse of Soviet Union and oil-price rise due to the Gulf War, India was facing a major balance of payments threat crisis and the threat of default. India thus asked the IMF for a bailout of $1.8 Bn which in return asked for reforms... India has just not been the same since then.
In the reforms under then Economic Minister and now Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, license raj was done away with, many public monopolies were ended .. (allowing waves like the telecom wave which has enabled so many to own a phone now, which was once a luxury).. and automatic approval of FDI in many sectors.
But still, due to the heavily pusillanimous nature of Indian Political parties on the real issues, and avoided any labor reforms or agricultural subsidy related issue so as to not be on the wrong side of the trade unions or farmers.... but hey!! can you blame them even the most developed countries of the world have high subsidies on agriculture =P ... the thing with democracy is that it ends up in an all-appeasing system instead of the developing system thought by many to be.
In a complete reversal to the situation of 1991, India bought 200 tons of gold from IMF for $6.7 Bn in 2009. India is expected to become the third largest economy in the world, second only to US & China.. =)
India has the second highest farm output in the world, second only to China.. but the fact is that 60% of our workforce is still employed by agriculture which is a whopping 16.6% percent to 19% (various estimates) as compared to the 1-2 % commonly prevalent in the developed economies ... even the rates of agricultural productivity are some 30-50% below the highest average yield. Which means that not only is 60% of our workforce doing work which contributes less to GDP but also they are not very efficient at it... I have nothing against agriculture and I am all for a country being agriculturally self-sufficient but still we need to be able to manage our resources well and use them efficiently.
Industries in India aren't any better either, they account for about 19.3% of GDP and again below standard in efficiency. Indian small scale industries are said to make up 5% of all the CO2 emission in the world.
Services on the other hand, constitute about 60.7% of the GDP,employing 23% of workforce... again proving the Pareto principle, ... I just cannot emphasis how important the creative class is for India... India might live in the villages, but it's the cities which help India run... two very different countries.. =(
The IT sector, ITES & BPO are amongst the fastest growing sectors. This has been due the a workforce which is specialised, educated, skilled, english-speaking but low cost and available in large numbers on the supply side matched by the demand for the same in the Global scenario.
The IT industry now boasts of producing 7% of India's GDP. It is one of the key areas which has changed the image, many had of India
In terms of resources, India is a resource rich country, boasting of 10% of the world's coal reserves which feed India as of now and about 25% of the world's thorium reserve which are expected to fuel the ambitious nuclear energy program... and in case the world moves to nuclear power in the search of cleaner fuels, India might just become the next middle-east.
The same could change India's fortune from being energy depdent to an energy state. India is currently amongst the biggest importer of crude oil in the world.
Since Independence, India's Balance of Payment and it's current account has been negative. Even the 1990s liberalization was a precipitate of the balance of payment crisis. Even though exports have risen significantly post 1991, the huge crude oil imports of India are one of the major reason for it's current account deficit.
Although India is still a net importer, it's BOP has been positive since 1996-97 largely due the FDI and deposits by NRIs... no wonder we saw the Pravasi Bharat Diwas post 1996.. before that NRI was often the traitor who left his country, now he is a representative who does good for his nation.
As the fourth largest economy in PPP terms, India is a preferred destination for FDI. India has strengths in telecommunications, IT and other significant areas such as auto components, chemicals, apparels, pharmaceuticals and jewellery.
Guess which country has the highest amount of FDI in India?? No.. not US, not any European Country,... it's Mauritius and that too a whopping 44.24% of the FDI inflows. This is so as Mauritius is a capital gains tax haven and there is a treaty between India & Mauritius so double taxation is avoided, hence it effectively creates an almost zero-tax FDI channel.
Hmm.. now let's move to Income in India.... Sad Sad figures =(
1. 85.7% of India lives on less than $2.50 (PPP adjusted) which even though is less than 92.5% in 1981 is still higher than Sub-Sahara's 80.5% .... we are actually poorer than Sub-Saharan people in this respect =(
2. Similar is a figure for other such lines.. the World Bank says that a third of the world's poor live in India..
Unemployment exceed 9%.. Almost 30% of the workforce consists of casual workers who get paid only when they.. Only 10% of the workforce is in regular employment... Somehow I find this truly hard to believe =P ... Hogwash!!!.. I look at the source and Voila.. it's from a Pakistani Newspaper... when will we grow up.. Wiki will always be wiki.. but's it's imperfection which gives it the human touch, so much more fun =)
There is tonnes of other stuff like this on the Wiki page.. it's literally huge, it took me almost 2 days to get this one done.. yes I am lazy I know.. but that is why I took this project... it will so much fun... I really like how much I learnt from this post =)
Hope you guys like it too.. Ciao!